In case anyone is interested, I've been updating the stat spreadsheet for the second half of the season (linked at end of this post)...new sets included are GSAC, Delta Burke, IS-163A, IS-158, IS-162, IS-164, and HFT. Between now and NAQT State, I only anticipate adding entries for Mason Mashup (IS-165A) and Yellow Jacket (BHSAT), since Northmont Novice is a restricted field and OAC tournaments (like Copley this weekend) don't use the same statistics. The same methodology and caveats apply as in the mid-season stats post (go check it out!). IS-160 remains the baseline for comparison since it has the most data points associated with it and because I don't want to go back and change the adjustments all over the spreadsheet. Feel free to call out mistakes or take issue with how things are calculated (or try a formula of your own, all this is non-proprietary!). I went back and forth on whether to find some way to add greater weight to performance since January 1, etc., but instead I kept everything unweighted and decided to let the entire season's worth of data speak for itself.
I will note that my voting on my OQBA poll ballot will
not be 100% aligned with these statistical rankings. There might be some overlap, but the stats ranking doesn't factor in head-to-head victories, experience, and other elements that old grumpy sportswriters on TV always bring up when talking about the shortcomings of advanced metrics, such as heart, grit, and gumption.
New teams entering the spreadsheet this cycle are Walnut Hills and Lakewood.
Adjusted Points Per Bonus Ranking1. Dublin Scioto (previous ranking: 1)
2. Aurora (4)
3. Miami Valley A (2)
4. Westlake (3)*
5. Beavercreek A (7)
6. Sidney A (6)
7. Copley A (11)
8. Lakewood (UR)*
9. Fisher Catholic A (5)
10. Boardman A (13)
11. Solon A (10)
12. Olmsted Falls A (9)
13. Ottawa Hills A (8)
14. Olentangy Liberty (12)*
15. Northmont A (15)
Quick Takes: Beavercreek jumps two spots after strong conversion on both days of Solon Comet Clash...Copley rises four spots...Lakewood enters the top 10 after clearing 20 PPB at Solon...strong league performances buoy Boardman and Aurora.Asterisks: Westlake still has only one TU/B tournament in the database (Solon Fall), as does Lakewood (Comet Clash). Olentangy Liberty is a "program ranking" due to lineup changes.
Adjusted Power Percentage Ranking1. Dublin Scioto (previous ranking: 1)
2. Beavercreek (4)
3. Sidney (5)
4. Westlake (6)*
5. Fisher Catholic (3)
6. Brush A (10)
7. Tippecanoe (7)
8. Walnut Hills A (UR)*
9. Solon A (9)
10. Miami Valley A (8)
11. Copley A (2)
12. Dublin Jerome A (11)
13. Ottawa Hills A (13)
14. Boardman A (14)
15. Northmont (12)
Quick Takes: Beavercreek leaps into second place...Sidney rises two spots...Brush turns NAQT success at Solon into four-spot bump...Walnut Hills enters top 10.Asterisks: See above for Westlake. Walnut Hills also only has one tournament associated with it (Miami Invitational). Performance at Winter War (Delta Burke) was not included because the question set does not include powermarks.
Combined Rankings (adding ranks for aPPB and aP%)1. Dublin Scioto (previous ranking: 1)
2. Beavercreek (5)
3. Westlake (3)*
4. Sidney (5)
5. Miami Valley A (4)
6. Fisher Catholic (2)
7. Walnut Hills (UR)*
8. Copley (7)
9. Aurora (9)
10. Solon (8)
11. Boardman (13)
12. Brush (14)
13. Ottawa Hills (10)
14. Lakewood (UR)*
15. Olmsted Falls (11)
Inspired by Tom's post, I tried to compile a head-to-head ranking of sorts by tracking team records against top-10 opponents like you see during NCAA football and basketball playoff time. (I defined top-10 according to the OQBA midseason poll: Scioto, Sidney, Miami Valley, Copley, Beavercreek, Fisher, Solon, Boardman, Northmont, and Westlake). I calculated this stat for the top 15 teams in the combined ranking above. See below for wins & losses, win percentage vs. midseason top 10, and "notes of interest" in italics ("interest" being defined by anything that pops into my pea brain). Disclaimer: of any section in this post, this section is the most likely to have errors due to sheer blindness (I put this together from the NAQT and HSQB databases)
Scioto: 15-4 (.789)
Only in-state losses so far are to Beavercreek (twice) and Sidney (twice)Sidney: 18-9 (.667)
4-1 vs. BeavercreekCopley: 15-9 (.625)
4-0 vs. Sidney, 11-9 against remaining OQBA midseason top 10Miami Valley: 10-8 (.556)
Only top-10 teams it has not beaten are Scioto and SidneyBeavercreek: 13-11 (.542)
Record vs. top 10 before Jan. 1: 6-7. Record vs. top 10 since Jan 1: 7-4.Westlake: 2-2 (.500)
Walnut Hills: 1-1 (.500)
Both games vs. Miami Valley A at Miami InvitationalOttawa Hills: 1-1 (.500)
Won vs. Northmont, lost vs. CopleyFisher Catholic: 10-14 (.417)
Boardman: 4-7 (.364)
Solon A: 6-13 (.316)
Aurora: 1-5 (.167)
Currently second to Cloverleaf in Portage LeagueLakewood: 0-1 (.000)
Lost vs. Scioto, def. Aurora and Olmsted Falls at Comet ClashOlmsted Falls: 0-5 (.000)
Is 3-0 vs. Ottawa Hills, split with Aurora at Comet ClashBrush: 0-10 (.000)
Lost to Ottawa Hills and Olmsted Falls at Battle Buzz
Again, all statistical rankings are for entertainment purposes only. I look forward to this weekend when stats guru Fred Morlan releases a new top 200 on HSQBRank and has all these teams totally flipped around. (If I had to guess, one of the main differences will likely be a greater adjustment attached to A-sets). Have fun discussing in the meantime! For the really nutty among you, you can peruse the full data spreadsheet here:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... edit#gid=0. There's plenty to keep you busy! I apologize if there are errors...let me know if you spot any.
Edit 1: updated Aurora's head-to-head to reflect that Portage League season is not yet complete